After three decades of ethnic division and almost a year after bilateral negotiations last collapsed, Cyprus is closer than ever to reunification as a new round of talks aim to meet a tight March 22 deadline for a final agreement. The talks in Nicosia’s United Nations buffer zone followed a breakthrough agreement between the two sides in New York last month to negotiate on the basis of UN Secretary General Kofi Annan’s peace plan.

Expressing the new sense of optimism after years of deadlock, Annan said he was hopeful this time. “I commend the constructive spirit and political will displayed by both parties, as well as by Greece and Turkey , to reach this agreement,” the UN Secretary General told reporters in New York. “All concerned now face historic responsibilities to bring about a just and lasting peace in Cyprus,” he said.

Acting Greek Foreign Minister Tassos Yannitsis was also upbeat and said the new round of talks constitutes a new “historic opportunity to resolve the problem (…) This means that we are disentangled from the stalemate. And it justifies the steady and determined position that the government and the Greek Cypriots adopted within the UN process,” he told reporters in Athens. Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan has also expressed backing of a solution on the basis of the Annan plan.

The Secretary General, whose 200-page plan was rejected by the Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash last year, had repeatedly stated he would not get involved unless there was enough will on both sides for a solution.

International concerns
Failure to reach an agreement means that the internationally recognised Greek Cypriot government in the south will join the EU on May 1 on its own, further isolating the Turkish Cypriot north, whose self-declared republic is only recognised by Ankara .

Analysts say such an outcome will only cement the isolation of the Turkish Cypriots and jeopardize Turkey's own EU aspirations. Brussels has repeatedly warned Ankara that a solution to the Cyprus problem will help its membership bid, as 40,000 Turkish troops in the north could be considered to be occupying EU territory.

With pressure coming from the United Nations, the European Union and the US , the urgency for a solution is perhaps greater than ever before. The EU has not tired in stating that it would prefer a united Cyprus to join the community rather than a problematic divided one, while Washington wants to see relations between NATO allies Greece and Turkey improve further.

For his part, new Pasok leader and former Foreign Minister George Papandreou – whose contribution to the thawing of relation between the former adversaries has been unabated – has said that improved Greek-Turkish ties will depend on a just and viable solution to the Cyprus problem.

The plan, the alternatives, the objections
The plan presented by the Secretary General envisages a single state with two federal regions comprised of the majority Greek-Cypriot south and the Turkish-Cypriot north . The two component states would be governed by local administrations. The presidency of the central government will comprise both Greek-Cypriot and Turkish-Cypriot ministers. In case of a deadlock among ministers, three foreign experts, chosen from both sides, will intervene to resolve it.

Moreover, under the plan, Turkey and the Turkish Cypriots will have to hand back land amounting to approximately 8% of the Turkish-Cypriot northern part, while almost half of the 200,000 Greek Cypriots displaced by the Turkish invasion will be entitled to return to their homes.

If an agreement is reached between Cyprus President Tassos Papadopoulos and Denktash, the plan will be put to both sides in a referendum on April 21. Turkey, who under the agreement will have to drastically reduce its troops stationed on the island since 1974, will then have until July 20 to ratify the plan. If a final agreement is not reached, ‘guarantors’ Greece and Turkey will, in accordance with the New York deal, intervene. If that fails too, both sides agreed that Annan will “fill in the blanks” before it is submitted to both sides for a referendum.

Yet experience has shown that both sides will be sticking to their guns on many thorny issues. Greek Cypriots, enjoying three times higher living standards than their northern counterparts, feel the plan legitimises the results of the Turkish occupation and the self-declared Turkish-Cypriot state in existence since 1983. The Greek-Cypriot side is also wary that the Turkish Cypriots will have more power in the central government than their number allow for (Turkish Cypriots make up less than a third of the island’s population).

Turkish-Cypriot critics, on the other hand, contend the plan doesn't recognise their breakaway state and, essentially, their equality. They are also wary of the provision for the return of Greek Cypriot refugees – the majority of the island’s displaced population – and the exodus of an undetermined chunk of Turkish mainland settlers, who began to arrive in numbers after 1974. Greek Cypriots insist that all refugees should be allowed to return. But some Turkish Cypriots, who moved into the homes of displaced Greeks, are concerned at the prospect of moving anew when their legitimate owners claim their property. "Where are we supposed to go?" is a common response.