Greek politicians, the media and the public are paying much more attention to public opinion polls than they did ten years ago. The call by conservative New Democracy (ND) party head Costas Karamanlis for early elections on June 27 is a consequence of this trend: it came a few weeks after three polls were released showing ND ahead of governing Socialist party (PASOK).

Whether or not the scheduled spring 2004 elections will be moved up, it’s worth taking a look at the new status of political pollsters in Greece. Their field blossomed in the 1990s and is only now coming of age, but suspicion of unscientific or biased results still lingers.

There’s been an explosion in public opinion poll taking over the past decade, says research company V.PRC’s managing director Yannis Mavris. V.PRC is one of a handful of companies (most formed in the 1980’s and 1990’s) that conduct high-profile political polls for newspapers, television stations and parties. Other major players (perhaps too many for a small market like Greece, speculates Mavris) are Kappa Research, MRB Hellas (founded 1967), Metron Analysis, ALKO, Opinion and Rass. Most also conduct market research.

A nascent business
The rise of political polling is linked with the growth of market research in Greece over the past two decades and the end of the state television monopoly in 1989. Public opinion polls first made the news in the ‘90s. Exit polls may have originated in the US in the 1950s, but only hit Greece in 1994, when Mega TV channel broadcast Euro-election results.

Newspaper Eleftherotypia printed the first political opinion poll in 1976, says Elias Nikolakopoulos, a pollster at Opinion and professor of The University of Athens who regularly appears on Mega. He points to the scant and very politicised prehistory of Greek political polling. The first unpublished polls were sponsored by the US State Department in 1946, 1957 and 1958. Then, the Greek Institute for Research and Communications made monthly reports to the US embassy before the dictatorship and a secret 1974 election poll for the Ministry of Press.

Only in the 1980’s did the Greek Centre of Social Research (EKKE) start contributing well-regarded political opinion data to the Europe-wide Eurobarometer http://europa.eu.int/comm/public_opinion/standard_en.htm. Despite accurate 1984 and 1990 pre-election forecasts, however, politicians tended to ignore the findings, Nikolakopoulos remarks. Today, however, he believes that parties are reliant on popularity polls at all levels – even in picking local election candidates. There is a glut of data, he thinks, with no political area untouched by pollsters.

Image problems
Though leading pollsters use the latest methodologies, companies are still accused of political bias. Nikolakopoulos says that, though major research companies aren’t influenced by pressures, some poll companies may be “closer” to a particular party, or under the influence of corporate ties. Western Macedonia Technical Educational Institute (TEI) professor Prodromos Yannas agrees the temptation is very real, but notes that poll results tend to be quite close across the board because pollsters can’t afford to lose credibility.

The issue hung over the first convention of the Association of Greek Market and Opinion Research Companies (SEDEA) held in Athens on June 25. Founded in 1990, SEDEA is made up of 33 members, including the handful of political pollsters. In his talk, Yorgos Flessas, founder of public affairs company Civitas, advised: “The elections are coming up. Don’t give into pressures from parties and the media. Preserve your independence.” SEDEA asks its members to publish poll details and abide to data gathering rules, including those of the World Association of Opinion and Marketing Research (ESOMAR) , of which it is a member. SEDEA’s president and MRB managing director Dimitris Mavros warned: “We have to prove we’re not gallopadzides (gallop hacks)”.

On June 25, Minister of Press Christos Protopappas indicated SEDEA might get its wish of a comprehensive legal framework covering poll-taking and copyright issues. One of the few laws that exist regarding polling today is hotly contested. Hailing from 1998, it prohibits political polls being publicised 15 days before elections. Pollsters agree that this law was widely violated during its first real test, the 2000 national elections. (exit polls were also flunked during these elections, by incorrectly announcing ND victory instead of admitting the race was “too close to call”)

. Nikolakopoulos argues that the law violates free speech, without proof that polls encourage Greek voters to vote for the frontrunner or the underdog. By contrast, Yannas thinks that the provincial or undecided voter could be swayed by election period polling. For her part, Athens mayor Dora Bakoyianni spoke against the 1998 law at the convention, noting that unpublished poll results are simply spread by word-of-mouth anyway.

A double-edged sword Politicians and the media need to hold up their end of things too. Yannas says some representatives arrogantly assume they don’t need polls or haven’t learned to do more than glean the info they want. SEDEA’s president critiqued newspapers for having impressive colour spreads but little in-depth analysis.

As for the public, though many voters are savvy, Greeks still haven’t learned to trust polls overall, says Yannas. This is despite the fact that MRB study “Greeks and Polls” found that over half of Greeks had a positive image of polls. Nonetheless, Greeks are a pollster’s dream as subjects. V.PRC’s Mavris points out that they aren’t sick of being polled yet or reluctant to speak of politics. “Sometimes...they don’t stop talking”.

The more regular the poll, the greater the credibility. Though Greece lacks the weekly political barometers found elsewhere, companies like MRB (“Trends”) and Metron Analysis conduct political opinion polls on a regular basis throughout the year. Such polls, says Yannas, “aren’t influenced by a specific political climate”.

As one of the few academics in the field, Nikolakopoulos feels that there could be more education and analysis of poll results by universities. He thinks Greece should establish an independent, poll-monitoring board, as in France. He may have the best “spin” on the subject overall. In addressing his SEDEA colleagues, Nikolakopoulos said polls should not be deified, because “they aren’t contemporary expressions of direct democracy”. At the same time, he argued they shouldn’t be demonised either, because they aren’t “a mechanism thwarting democracy.” Polls are a double-edged sword, he said, always subject to error – but a record of political phenomena that may assist opinion shaping.